The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the third time this year, saying inflation in the euro zone was increasingly under control while the outlook for the wider economy was worsening.
The first back-to-back rate cut in 13 years marks a shift in focus for the euro zone’s central bank from bringing down inflation to protecting economic growth, which has lagged far behind that of the US for two years in a row.
“We believe the disinflationary process is well on track and all the information we received in the last five weeks were heading in the same direction – lower,” ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference after an ECB statement which also noted “recent downside surprises” on economic activity.
Those data are likely to have tilted the balance within the ECB in favour of a rate cut, with business activity and sentiment surveys as well as the inflation reading for September all coming in slightly lower than expected.
Asked about the prospect of higher tariffs on European goods if Donald Trump wins next month’s US presidential election, Ms Lagarde said any trade obstacles were a “downside” for Europe.
“Any restriction, any uncertainty, any obstacles to trade matter for an economy like the European economy, which is very open,” she said, adding that the ECB was also “very attentive” to possible oil price moves linked to the Middle East conflict.
However she added: “We certainly do not see a recession. We are still looking at that soft landing.”
The quarter-point cut lowers the rate that the ECB pays on banks’ deposits to 3.25%. Money markets are almost fully pricing in three further reductions up to next March.
The ECB did not provide any indication about future moves in its statement, instead repeating its mantra that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting” based on incoming data.
The euro edged up after the decision which had been well flagged by a number of ECB speakers including President Christine Lagarde.
The ECB can finally claim it has all but tamed the worst bout of inflation in at least a generation.
Euro zone prices grew by just 1.7% last month, falling below the bank’s 2% target for the first time in three years. While inflation may edge above 2% by the end of this year, it is expected to hover around that level for the foreseeable future.
The ECB noted pay hikes are still supporting “domestic inflation” – that is growth in the price of services and goods that don’t rely much on imports – but this too was waning.
“Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace,” it said. “At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.”
Yet the economy has had to pay a high price for that.
High interest rates have sapped investment and economic growth, which has been weak for nearly two years. The most recent data, including about industrial output and bank lending, is pointing to more of the same in the coming months.
A resilient labour market is also now starting to show some cracks, with the vacancy rate – or the proportion of vacant jobs as a share of the total – falling from record highs.
This has fuelled calls inside the ECB to ease policy before it is too late.
“Now we face a new risk: undershooting target inflation, which could stifle economic growth,” Portuguese central banker Mario Centeno said recently. “Fewer jobs and reduced investment would add to the sacrifice ratio already endured.”
Some of that weakness is due to structural problems, such as the high energy costs and low competitiveness hobbling Europe’s industrial powerhouse, Germany.
Ms Lagarde repeated the ECB’s customary call on Europe’s politicians to push ahead with “ambitious” reforms to make the region’s economy more productive, competitive and resilient.
On a €300,000 mortgage, today’s 0.25% cut will result in a monthly saving of about €46.
Article Source – ECB cuts interest rates again as inflation cools – RTE
